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2024 — SET YOUR LUCK, NOT YOUR GOALS

Every January 1st, many folks reflect on the year gone by, and they plan for the year ahead. Part is goal setting, done through formats that work best for themselves. But some overlook their definite purpose—not clearly stating what they want to achieve. They set goals or list steps towards an undefined end. And what nearly everyone fails to set is luck. That’s making their purpose, goals, and steps align with seemingly random-chance forces of luck.

Happy New Year from the team of one at DyingWords. 2023 was productive, and I ticked off goals or steps in building my definite purpose. With luck, that’s completing a 26-episode streaming series titled City Of Danger. You can preview it here.

I also maintained a bi-weekly blog schedule, now entering its 12th year. Additionally, I appeared as a resource on 11 shows. Some were on-camera, and some were on-air with a few big hitters like Investigation Discovery, CBS, and NPR. I also found space to publish a new craft book on writing with Artificial Intelligence (AI) and to rewrite/republish an older work called Interconnect—Finding Your Place, Purpose, and Meaning in the Universe. You can download Interconnect for free here.

For 2024, I’m saying “No” to most opportunities and focussing almost entirely on City Of Danger which is using AI production. In this venture, “learning curve” is an understatement. I started the project in April 2021 and, with luck, the goal in this purpose is to have it done by 2025. 2026 at the latest, depending on evolution of its interactive digital, audio, and visual storytelling technology.

Enough about me. How about you? Have you stated a 2024 purpose—small or big? Have you set some goals? And do you believe you can make luck improve your good fortune? Let’s talk a bit about goals, luck, and good fortune.

What got me going on this piece was yesterday’s issue of The Morning Brew. (If you don’t subscribe to The Brew, you’re missing out. Plus, it’s free.) One section was about goal setting and how sometimes it doesn’t turn out well because people set unrealistic goals—some ridiculous—that can’t be met, and their dreams are crushed. It mentioned an NFL linebacker whose goal was to make the first-round draft pick. When he was placed in the sixth tier, his soul was destroyed, and he dropped out to become a TV announcer.

The article linked me to a guy I’ve never heard of who turns out to be a big fish in the motivational pond. His name is Sahil Bloom, and he hosts Curiosity Chronicle. I rabbit-holed his site and found one of the best slices of goal-setting pies I’ve ever devoured. The Morning Brew has a great interview with Mr. Bloom, and I’ll list the highlights.

Bloom sets his distinct objective, or definite purpose as it’s known with the Napoleon Hill crowd. He then puts out three buckets. One is the A-Bucket containing ambitious goals. One is the B-Bucket with base goals. One is the C-Bucket with low-value goals. In other terms, major goals, moderate goals, and minimum goals.

The interviewer asked Bloom about the number one mistake he sees people make when setting goals. He answered, “I see people tying their future happiness to the achievement of some goal. How many times have you assumed your lasting happiness was on the other side of some goal? A promotion? A pay raise? Another degree? How many times have you been proven wrong in this assumption?”

Bloom continues. “The Arrival Fallacy is the term I use to describe the false assumption that achieving a certain goal will create lasting happiness in our lives. It’s a When-Then psychology. When I achieve X, then I’ll be happy. The reality is that achievement is not a lasting source of happiness. Our natural wiring, or hedonic adaptation, keeps us running. We reset to the baseline and start wondering what comes next. It’s the purpose you’re after. Not the goals.”

I did some further goal research and asked my trusty AI assistant this question. “What are goals as they pertain to human personal achievement?”

It replied, “Goals in the context of personal achievement refer to specific, measurable, and time-bound objectives that individuals set for themselves to work towards self-improvement, success, or the realization of a particular aspiration. Personal goals provide a sense of direction, motivation, and purpose in various aspects of life, including career, education, health, relationships, and personal development.

Examples of personal goals might include:

  • Career Goals: Achieving a specific position, completing a project, or acquiring a new skill.
  • Education Goals: Obtaining a degree, acquiring a certification, or expanding knowledge in a particular field.
  • Health and Fitness Goals: Losing weight, running a marathon, or adopting a healthier lifestyle.
  • Relationship Goals: Building stronger connections with family and friends or improving communication in a romantic relationship.
  • Personal Development Goals: Enhancing emotional intelligence, developing a growth mindset, or cultivating a new hobby.

The process of setting and working towards personal goals involves self-reflection, planning, and consistent effort. Breaking down larger goals into smaller, more manageable tasks can make the journey more achievable and help maintain motivation along the way. Regularly reviewing and adjusting goals based on progress and changing circumstances is also a key aspect of effective goal setting for personal achievement.

I drilled deeper with, “What is the most effective goal-setting system or procedure?”

It told me, “There isn’t a one-size-fits-all answer to the most effective goal-setting procedure, as individuals have different preferences, styles, and needs. However, several widely recognized frameworks and strategies can help guide the process of setting and achieving goals. One popular and effective approach is the SMART criteria, which stands for Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, and Time-Bound. Here’s a breakdown of the SMART goal-setting framework:

  • Specific: Clearly define your goal. Be specific about what you want to achieve. The more precise your goal, the easier it is to create a plan of action.
  • Measurable: Establish measurable criteria to track your progress. Define how you will measure your success and know when you have reached your goal.
  • Achievable: Ensure that your goal is realistic and attainable. While it’s great to set ambitious objectives, make sure they are within reach given your resources and constraints.
  • Relevant: Align your goal with your broader values, priorities, and long-term objectives. Ensure that the goal is meaningful and relevant to your overall vision for personal or professional growth.
  • Time-Bound: Set a specific timeframe for achieving your goal. Having a deadline creates a sense of urgency and helps you stay focused on making progress.

Another valuable goal-setting model is OKR (Objectives and Key Results), commonly used in business settings but applicable to personal goals as well. OKRs involve setting clear objectives and defining key results that indicate progress toward those objectives.

Additionally, some people prefer a more holistic approach, incorporating the Wheel of Life or Life Mapping, which involves setting goals in different areas of life such as career, health, relationships, and personal development.

Regardless of the specific framework you choose, here are some general tips for effective goal setting:

  • Write Down Your Goals: Putting your goals in writing helps solidify your commitment and provides a reference point for tracking progress.
  • Break Down Goals: Divide larger goals into smaller, more manageable tasks. This makes the process less overwhelming and allows for incremental achievements.
  • Regular Review: Periodically review your goals to assess progress and make any necessary adjustments. This ensures that your goals remain relevant and achievable.
  • Stay Flexible: Be open to adapting your goals based on changing circumstances or new insights. Flexibility is key to successful goal pursuit.

Ultimately, the most effective goal-setting procedure is the one that resonates with you and aligns with your personal preferences and needs. Experiment with different approaches and adjust as necessary to find a system that works best for you.

This all made sense to me, considering it’s coming from a bot. But I wanted to expand this piece into the subject of luck. So, I returned to a human at Mr. Bloom’s website.

Here I found an informative article titled The 4 Types of Luck. It’s on what luck really is. That’s making your purpose and goals align with the seemingly random-chance forces of luck and making luck work towards your advantage.

First, Mr. Bloom evoked the Oxford Languages English dictionary. It said this:

“Luck is success or failure apparently brought on by chance rather than through one’s own actions. Chance happenings beyond a person’s control.”

The 4 Types of Luck

In 1978, a neurologist named Dr. James Austin published a book titled Chase, Chance, & Creativity: The Lucky Art of Novelty. In it, Dr. Austin proposed there are four types of luck:

  • I. Blind Luck
  • II. Luck from Motion
  • III. Luck from Awareness
  • IV. Luck from Uniqueness

Here’s how to think about each type.

Type I: Blind Luck

“The good luck that occurs is completely accidental. It is pure blind luck that comes with no effort on our part.”

Type I Luck is completely out of your control. It includes: Where you are born. Who you are born to. Base circumstances of your life. Acts of God. Type I Luck covers the truly random occurrences of the universe.

Type I Example: You win the lottery. Or, you’re out walking and a Russian satellite crashes on your head.

Type II: Luck from Motion

“Something else has been added—motion…A certain basic level of action ‘stirs up the pot’, brings in random ideas that will collide and stick together in fresh combinations, lets chance operate.”

Type II luck is a result of your motion. You’re creating motion and collisions through hustle and energy that you are inserting into an ecosystem. Type II Luck is derived through the expansion of your luck surface area from simple movement. The increase in collisions opens you up to more lucky events.

Type II Example: You start a new job and start saying yes to every opportunity that comes your way. You’re working hard, running around, meeting new people, and connecting new connections whenever possible. You connect two of the people you met through taking on these opportunities and they start a business together and make you a small advisor because you connected them. It becomes a big business and you make $1 million. Your hustle and motion created this “lucky” event.

Type III: Luck from Awareness

“Luck presents only a faint clue, the potential opportunity exists, but it will be overlooked except by that one person uniquely equipped to observe it, visualize it conceptually, and fully grasp its significance. Type III Luck involves involves a special receptivity, discernment, and intuitive grasp of significance unique to one particular recipient.”

Type III Luck is a result of your awareness and depth of understanding of a specific domain. This depth of understanding within a given arena allows you to become very good at positioning yourself for lucky breaks to benefit you.

The entrepreneur and investor Naval Ravikant summarized this type of luck beautifully: “You become very good at spotting luck.” You can “spot luck” from a mile away because of your depth of knowledge and experience.

Type III Example: You’re an entrepreneur and you see the impressive pace at which generative AI is developing for creating images and art. You had been building around the NFT profile picture craze of 2021/22 and believe that generative AI profile pictures may represent a market with similar potential. You build a generative AI profile picture app and charge people to use it, making millions. Your mind was prepared for the “lucky” opportunity given your experience set.

Type IV: Luck from Uniqueness

“Type IV Luck comes to you, unsought, because of who you are and how you behave…the links of Type IV can be drawn together and fused only by one quixotic rider cantering in on his own homemade hobby horse to intercept the problem at an odd angle… This type favors those with distinctive, if not eccentric hobbies, personal lifestyles, and motor behaviors.”

Type IV Luck occurs when your unique set of attributes attracts specific luck to you. It actually seeks you out.

Type IV Example: You’ve spent years tinkering with generative AI models (way before they were cocktail party fodder). Your unique passion and earned expertise means that you’re often called on by founders and CEOs building at the forefront of AI, and you’re able to earn equity in a variety of interesting projects that will likely return millions. Your unique and quirky hobby attracts luck to you.

The Art & Science of Luck

Typically, Type I, Type II, and Type III Luck arrives in stages:

  • Type I dictates the early years of your life.
  • Type II comes into play as you begin to hustle in your 20s.
  • Type III sets in as you develop deep experience in your 30s and beyond.
  • Type IV is more dislocated from age dependency.

To help remember this framework, here’s an infographic you can reference in the future.

Okay, enough plagiarizing from Mr. Bloom. (However, if you’d like to further explore his content, here’s the link to his site Curiosity Chronicle. And please sign his mailing list—his goal is to have 1 million followers by the end of 2024. Now, back to my trusty AI friend who I asked, “What is luck?”

It replied, “Luck is a concept that refers to the unpredictable and uncontrollable force or chance that influences events and outcomes in one’s life. It is often perceived as a mysterious and arbitrary force that can bring about positive or negative results without any apparent connection to personal effort, skill, or merit.

Luck is subjective and can be interpreted differently by individuals based on their beliefs, experiences, and cultural backgrounds. Some people attribute certain events to luck, seeing it as a factor beyond their control, while others may view outcomes as the result of their own actions and choices.

In many cultures, luck is often associated with superstitions, symbols, and rituals. People may engage in behaviors or use objects they believe bring good luck while avoiding those associated with bad luck. Additionally, the concept of luck is frequently used in casual conversation to explain unexpected successes or failures.

It’s important to note that the perception of luck is subjective, and various factors, including individual perspectives, cultural influences, and cognitive biases, contribute to how people understand and interpret the role of luck in their lives.

I asked, “How can a person improve their luck?”

It replied, “While luck is often considered unpredictable and beyond one’s control, there are certain attitudes and behaviors that individuals can adopt to potentially increase their chances of positive outcomes. Keep in mind that these suggestions do not guarantee luck but may contribute to creating opportunities and fostering a positive mindset:

Positive Attitude: Cultivate a positive mindset and outlook on life. Positive thinking can help you approach challenges with resilience and creativity, increasing your ability to recognize and seize opportunities.

Preparation and Hard Work: The saying “luck favors the prepared” suggests that being well-prepared and putting in effort can create circumstances that may lead to positive outcomes. Work hard, stay dedicated to your goals, and be persistent.

Openness to Opportunities: Be open to new experiences and opportunities. Sometimes luck comes from unexpected sources, and being receptive to change can increase your chances of stumbling upon fortunate situations.

Networking: Building a strong network of connections can provide access to valuable information and opportunities. Engage with people in your field, attend events, and be open to collaborations.

Continuous Learning: Stay curious and committed to learning. Acquiring new skills and knowledge can broaden your perspectives and make you more adaptable to different situations.

Risk-Taking: Taking calculated risks can lead to potential rewards. Evaluate risks carefully and be willing to step out of your comfort zone when the situation warrants it.

Resilience: Developing resilience can help you bounce back from setbacks and adapt to changes. The ability to persevere through challenges is often seen as a factor in long-term success.

Mindfulness and Intuition: Pay attention to your intuition and practice mindfulness. Being aware of your surroundings and trusting your instincts can sometimes guide you toward favorable decisions.

Helping Others: Acts of kindness and helping others can create a positive ripple effect. Building good relationships and being supportive can lead to reciprocity and unexpected opportunities.

Adaptability: Stay flexible and adaptable in the face of change. Being able to adjust to different circumstances can help you navigate challenges and take advantage of unforeseen opportunities.

While these suggestions may contribute to a more positive and proactive approach to life, it’s essential to acknowledge that luck is not entirely within one’s control. External factors, chance, and circumstances also play a significant role in shaping outcomes.

My thanks to internet resources The Morning Brew, Sahil Bloom of Curiosity Chronicle, and my trusty assistant ChatGPT. My takeaway from goals and luck? Have a purpose, put it out to the ether, have faith, process what comes back, and persist towards that purpose. By increasing your exposure—your purpose—you’re setting your luck.

So set your luck, not your goals, and have good fortune in 2024!

THE EXCRUCIATING DEATH OF MISTER RED PEPPER PASTE MAN

“Sounded like someone was skinning a live cat,” the neighbor told us. Shaking, she sniffed and wiped her eyes and looked away. “Loud crashing and banging. Then… everything… everything went quiet. I waited a bit. Didn’t hear nothing more. So I went and checked and found him.” She burst into tears. “He was dead. Dead on the floor.”

I was in my first year of coroner understudy and shadowing my mentor, senior coroner Barbara McCormick. We were in the kitchen of a tiny suite on the poor side of town, standing over this skinny, old guy lying in a semi-fetal position with one arm wrapped around his abdomen and his other hand clutching his jaw. I’ll never forget the wide-open eyes or the gritting grimace of teeth—the expression of excruciating pain etched in a cold, deathly stare.

“Heart attack or brain aneurysm, Barb?” I asked, ready to flip a coin. I was new to the coroner service, but no stranger to dead bodies after a career as a homicide cop. There was zero sign of foul play at this scene and my experience told me people only suddenly drop dead from one of these two natural events.

Barb was bent over, starting the head-to-toe examination that coroners do before removing a body for a thorough autopsy back at the morgue. “Wouldn’t bet on either.” Barb was trying to pry his jaw for a look down the throat. “Check his color. Blue-gray. He’s asphyxiated. I’m thinking he might have choked on something but, for the life of me, I don’t know how he could let out a curdling cat-scream if something was stuck in his yap.”

While Barb was messing with his head, I snooped around. It was typical digs for a single pensioner—a bachelor suite crammed with junk. Empty booze bottles and overflowing ashtrays testified to a lifestyle that suggested he should be dead of something by now. I checked for meds, which was routine. The pathologist would want to know what was likely in his system and the toxicology lab would want it for sure.

I found the usual pill vials indicating treatment for coronary and respiratory ailments that heavy drinkers and smokers all have. The place was relatively clean, although cluttered, and didn’t reek of garbage and bodily waste like most of these places do. I saw a part-eaten sandwich on the table and a freshly cracked beer—seemed like the old boy was doing lunch when violently seized by the death monster and taken down hard to the mat.

Barb stood up. She looked puzzled. “I have no idea. Should be an interesting postmortem.”

We finished photographs, bagged the cadaver, stretchered it out to the transport van, and drove downtown to the morgue.

We’d recorded his personal details, which is part of a death investigation, but his real name never stayed with me. Most are like that. In the death business it’s not a good idea to get too close to your clients, but some you never forget because of how they checked out.

It’s normal—in black humor behind the scenes—for coroners to name their files by earned handles. I’ll always remember Capn’ Crab Bait, Voltage Vern, Methlab Mikey, Arachnoid Ann, Lawn Tractor Guy, Tarzan of the Caterpillars, Freight Train Ference, The Krosswalk Kidd, The Drill Sergeant, Pole Dancer, Cats-Sup, and… as long as I live… I’ll never forget The Electric Carving Knife Lady.

And it came to pass, I’ll also never forget Mister Red Pepper Paste Man, the dead little man we’d just tagged and rolled into the cooler.

Next morning my favorite pathologist, Dr. Elvira Esikanian, was on the roster to autopsy our guy from the kitchen floor. I loved dealing with Elvira. Bosnian with a wicked sense of dry humor and an equally wicked curriculum vitae, including exhuming mass graves for the UN and serving in some of the busiest morgues around the world where she’d often do a dozen different cuttings per day.

Although Elvira was exceptionally thorough, she was a go-to-the-throat prosector. She’d assess the circumstances, then head straight to the most likely cause.

“I’m suspecting an acute respiratory event,” Elvira stated. “Note the petechiae in the eyes.” She pointed to pricks of blood spotted in his whites. “We normally see petechiae in cases of sudden and severe loss of oxygen, such as in strangulation, although on this man I see no sign of exterior trauma.”

We Y-incisioned the thorax/abdominal cavities and began removing organs.

“His lungs are clear, with the exception of tobacco effects.” Elvira had cross-sectioned them. “And his airway is unobstructed. This man did not choke, nor was he suffocated by fluid.” She examined the heart, which showed expected signs of advanced coronary artery disease. “And he did not suffer an acute myocardial infarct event. A heart attack.” Elvira placed the gastro-intestinal tract in a plastic tub and set it aside on her bench.

She proceeded straight to a cranial exam, inspecting for the tell-tale bleed of a cerebral hemorrhage. “Nothing obvious here.” Elvira put the brain in a stainless bowl. “You indicated this man was eating lunch when he expired.” She looked at me. I nodded. She reached for her plastic tub. “I’m going to examine the stomach.”

For most pathologists and coroners, digging in the digestive tract is the most unpleasant part of the job. It was no different with this man. Elvira incised the stomach wall and poured its contents into a clear, glass tray. She flipped on her magnifiers and bent a gooseneck light overtop. Immediately, she let out a wolf-whistle. “Whoa! Look at this!”

To me, it was a messy slime-goo of chewed bread mixed with some rude and red, pasty substance.

To Elvira, it was the smoking gun.

I watched Elvira excise a culture, fix it in a slide, and examine it under her microscope. “Have a look.” She directed me to the eyepieces.

What I saw was a squiggling biological mass of sub-terranean aliens—looking out-of-this-world like agitated, animated, turquoise tampons breathlessly mingling in a magnified mess of greenish-gray snot.

I swear they had heads, horns, and hoofs.

“Clostridium  Botulinum,” Elvira announced. “Botulism. I’m sure this man died from the deadliest food poison known.”

Now, I’d heard of botulism. Everyone has. That’s why my mum would sniff the tin cans when she opened them and why she’d boiled preserves for four hours then wait and listen to the sealer lids to pop. But this was the first time I’d seen a real case of botulism.

“We won’t know the strain or the severity level until we get toxicology results, but I can tell you, given how quickly this poor fellow expired, it must be an extremely toxic ratio.” Elvira went on. “What happens is the neurotoxin produced by the botulinum bacteria acts as a blocking agent preventing neurotransmitters from issuing instructions to the muscles. Once this poison hit his system, every nerve in his body would have felt on fire and he’d quickly fall into total paralysis. That would soon stop his lungs, and he’d fall into a state of anoxia, or lack of oxygenated blood to the brain. He’d be conscious throughout and would feel everything… but would be unable to react.”

Elvira glanced at the cut-open cadaver on her examining table. “What a positively excruciating way to die.”

Barb McCormick had her digital camera out. She scrolled through scene shots. “This might be it.” Barb enlarged a photo showing the kitchen. Evident was a jar with its top off, containing a reddish substance.

Realizing the lethality of the situation and the danger to others, Barb and I immediately returned to the apartment. There, on the counter, was a jar of red pepper paste with a label indicating it originated in China and was far past its expiry date. A tag showed it’d been purchased at the Dollar Store.

Cautiously, we peered inside.

And—I’m here to tell you—that red, peppery, pasty scum was alive. Simmering. Just shy of forming froth.

It took over a month for the toxicology results to come back. They proved positive for Botulinum toxin—Type E—and the dosage was staggering.

Toxicology measures the presumed lethal dose of a substance in digital units of LD50/ (mg/kg) which translates to the Lethal Dose (LD) required to kill half of the tested laboratory animals in a controlled volume and time.

The LD for Botulinum toxin is 0.00001. Our red pepper paste man’s reading was over 0.02000—two thousand times the amount needed to kill a human being.

It’s been a few years since the red pepper paste case, and I thought I’d review the pathology around Botulinum toxin. Here’s a quote from a paper by the World Health Organization on the medical process of how botulism works on the human body:

To understand the role of Botulinum toxin, it is necessary to understand how the brain initiates a muscle contraction as it is in this process that Botulinum toxin intervenes.

Muscles are connected to the brain by the nervous system which is a complex network of neurons—these are long cells that can pass information using either electrical or chemical signals. Chemical signals pass between neurons and muscles through synapses, which are specialized connections linking cells. The chemicals that are used to pass these messages are called neurotransmitters.

In the case of a muscle contraction, the chemical signal is passed using a neurotransmitter called acetylcholine. This sits in the neuron in a vesicle, a small bubble surrounded by a membrane, until it is required. When the neuron receives a message from the nervous system to initiate a muscle contraction, the acetylcholine is released from the vesicle and passes through the synapse into the muscle fiber.

To achieve this, the vesicles need to be transported to, and fuse with, the neuron membrane that adjoins the synapse between the nerve and the muscle. This process is controlled by a group of proteins called the SNARE complex.

The three main proteins involved are Syntaxin (which connects to the nerve membrane), Synaptobrevin (which connects to the vesicle) and SNAP-25 (which helps the other SNARE proteins link up). These proteins join to cause the vesicle to move to the nerve membrane and fuse with it. The acetylcholine can then be released across the synapse and pass into the muscle. This then triggers a chain of events that causes the muscle contraction.

Botulinum toxin prevents the release of acetylcholine through the synapse. It’s produced by a bacterium called Clostridium Botulinum. This bacterium is associated with causing botulism, a rare but extremely deadly form of food poisoning.

Botulinum toxin is exceptionally toxic but, when purified and used in tiny, medically controlled doses, it can be used effectively to relax excessive muscle contraction and is now commonly used in cosmetic surgery.

Hmmm… BOtulinum TOXin… BoTox.

The same gruesome stuff in the red pepper paste that painfully killed our little old man found dead on the floor is commonly stuck into people’s faces to make them look younger and pretty.

I’m sure, for the most part, BoTox injections are perfectly safe. But… if you’re thinking of cosmetically shedding some years, remember the Excruciating Death of Mister Red Pepper Paste Man.

AMERICA’S APOCALYPTIC ARMAGGEDON — THE YELLOWSTONE VOLCANIC CALDERA

Every year, more than 3 million tourists visit Yellowstone National Park which covers 3,472 square miles in Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho. Wildlife abounds, and the sheer, breathtaking natural beauty is beyond compare. But as camera-armed seniors photograph mudpots, fumaroles, and their grandkids rabbit-earing each other with Old Faithful in the backdrop, most are oblivious to standing on top of an active supermassive volcanic caldera—1,204 square miles in size—that’s set to blow with possibly more explosive power than all the atomic weapons in the US nuclear arsenal combined.

This won’t be the first volcanic rodeo for Yellowstone. It’s performed three times in the past. One eruption was the second largest in geological history that made the 1980 Mount St. Helens blast in Washington State seem meeker than a microbe’s fart.

There’s no question Yellowstone will boom once again. It’s just a matter of when. And when it does, it’ll be America’s Apocalyptic Armageddon—probably killing 10 million people in no time flat and slowly suffocating the rest of the country with lung-searing ash.

But before we go all Doomsday on this, let’s visit Yellowstone Park, meet its resident volcano, and decide what to make out of all this fear.

Yellowstone’s region has had human inhabitants for 10,000 years. Indigenous people hunted game, gathered plants, quarried obsidian for tools, and used the thermal vents for religious and medicinal purposes. Today, the National Park Service recognizes 27 tribes as holding traditional titles.

The first Europeans were hardy explorers, trappers, and hunters who brought back to the east fantastic tales of extraordinary sights—kaleidoscope colors of whirling hot pools that hissed while they bubbled, spouting geysers that marked time with the clock, and the ground too hot to step on without thick-soled boots. The Establishment, at the time, cast doubt on these claims and sent official expeditions to Yellowstone to see for themselves.

Sure enough, these claims were true. On March 1, 1872, United States President Ulysses S. Grant signed into law the first American National Park. Yellowstone. The land was preserved in its natural form forever. Since then, 63 more U.S. national parks have been created covering 52.2 million pristine acres.

Yellowstone is the largest hydrothermal ecosystem on Earth. It has over 10,000 unique thermal features, one of which is Old Faithful. Yellowstone also has the largest concentration of wildlife in America including a shaggy old bison herd that’s thrived there since prehistoric times.

At the heart of Yellowstone’s ecology, or should it be said its belly, is a massive magma chamber. Magma is the scientific term for molten rock that’s hot beyond comprehension. It’s the stuff that heats the geysers, whirls the pools, and boils the mud.

Here’s a quote from the U.S. Geological Survey Department:

Yellowstone is underlain by two magma bodies. The shallower one is composed of rhyolite (a high-silica rock type) and stretches from 5 km to about 17 km (3 to 10 mi) beneath the surface and is about 90 km (55 mi) long and about 40 km (25 mi) wide. The chamber is mostly solid, with only about 5-15% melt. The deeper reservoir is composed of basalt (a low-silica rock type) and extends from 20 to 50 km (12 to 30 mi) beneath the surface. Even though the deeper chamber is about 4.5 times larger than the shallow chamber, it contains only about 2% melt.

The method that scientists use to discern this information is similar to medical CT scans that bounce X-rays through the human body to make three-dimensional pictures of internal tissue. In an analogous manner, a method called seismic tomography uses hundreds to thousands of earthquakes recorded by dozens of stations to measure the speed of seismic waves through the Earth–data that allow geophysicists to make three-dimensional pictures of structures beneath the surface. Scientists compare these seismic velocities and infer the composition by comparing them with average, thermally undisturbed values.

And here’s more information from the Yellowstone National Park Service:

Magma (molten rock from below the earth’s crust) is close to the surface in the greater Yellowstone area. This shallow body of magma is caused by heat convection in the mantle. Plumes of magma rise through the mantle, melting rocks in the crust, and creating magma reservoirs of partially molten, partially solid rock.

Mantle plumes transport heat from deep in the mantle to the crust and create what we call “hot spot” volcanism. Hot spots leave a trail of volcanic activity as tectonic plates drift over them. As the North American Plate drifted westward over the last 16.5 million years, the hot spot that now resides under the greater Yellowstone area left a swath of volcanic deposits across Idaho’s Snake River Plain.

Heat from the mantle plume has melted rocks in the crust and created two magma chambers of partially molten, partially solid rock near Yellowstone’s surface. Heat from the shallowest magma chamber caused an area of the crust above it to expand and rise. Stress on the overlying crust resulted in increased earthquake activity along newly formed faults.

Eventually, these faults reached the magma chamber and magma oozed through the cracks. Escaping magma released pressure within the chamber, which also allowed volcanic gasses to escape and expand explosively in a massive volcanic eruption. The eruption spewed copious volcanic ash and gas into the atmosphere and produced fast, super-hot debris flows (pyroclastic flows) over the existing landscape. As the underground magma chamber emptied, the ground above it collapsed and created the first of Yellowstone’s three calderas.

This eruption 2.1 million years ago—among the largest volcanic eruptions known to man—coated 5,790 square miles with ash, as far away as Missouri. The total volcanic material ejected is estimated to have been 6,000 times the volume of material ejected during the 1980 eruption of Mt. St. Helens, in Washington.

A second significant, though smaller, volcanic eruption occurred within the western edge of the first caldera approximately 1.3 million years ago. The third and most recent massive volcanic eruption 631,000 years ago created the present 30- by 45-mile-wide Yellowstone Caldera. Since then, 80 smaller eruptions have occurred. Approximately 174,000 years ago, one of these created what is now the West Thumb of Yellowstone Lake.

During and after these explosive eruptions huge lava flows of viscous rhyolitic lava and less voluminous basalt lava flows partially filled the caldera floor and surrounding terrain. The youngest of these lava flows is the 70,000-year-old Pitchstone rhyolite flow in the southwest corner of Yellowstone National Park.

Since the last of three caldera-forming eruptions, pressure from the shallow magma body has formed two resurgent domes inside the Yellowstone Caldera. Magma may be as little as 3–8 miles beneath Sour Creek Dome and 8–12 miles beneath Mallard Lake Dome, and both domes inflate and subside as the volume of magma or hydrothermal fluids changes beneath them. The entire caldera floor lifts up or subsides, too, but not as much as the two domes.

In the past century, the net inflation has tilted the caldera floor toward the south. As a result, Yellowstone Lake’s southern shores have subsided and trees now stand in water, and the north end of the lake has risen into a sandy beach at Fishing Bridge.

Recent Activity

Remarkable ground deformation has been documented along the central axis of the caldera between Old Faithful and White Lake in Pelican Valley in historic time. Surveys of suspected ground deformation began in 1975 using vertical-motion surveys of benchmarks in the ground. By 1985 the surveys documented unprecedented uplift of the entire caldera in excess of a meter (3 ft).

Later GPS measurements revealed that the caldera went into an episode of subsidence (sinking) until 2005 when the caldera returned to an episode of extreme uplift. The largest vertical movement was recorded at the White Lake GPS station, inside the caldera’s eastern rim, where the total uplift from 2004 to 2010 was about 27 centimeters (10.6 in).

The rate of rise slowed in 2008 and the caldera began to subside again during the first half of 2010. The uplift is believed to be caused by the movement of deep hydrothermal fluids or molten rock into the shallow crustal magma system at a depth of about 10 km beneath the surface. A caldera may undergo episodes of uplift and subsidence for thousands of years without erupting.

Notably, changes in uplift and subsidence have been correlated with increases of earthquake activity. Lateral discharge of these fluids away from the caldera, and the accompanying earthquakes, subsidence, and uplift relieves pressure and could act as a natural pressure release valve balancing magma recharge and keeping Yellowstone safe from volcanic eruptions.

That was informative. But what the National Park Service and the Geological Survey quotes don’t address is how they measure the size of a volcanic blast. It’s called the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI). While we’re quoting, here’s another quote:

The volcanic explosivity index (VEI) is a relative measure of the explosiveness of volcanic eruptions. It was devised by Christopher G. Newhall of the United States Geological Survey and Stephen Self in 1982.

Volume of products, eruption cloud height, and qualitative observations (using terms ranging from “gentle” to “mega-colossal”) are used to determine the explosivity value. The scale is open-ended with the largest eruptions in history given a magnitude of 8. A value of 0 is given for non-explosive eruptions, defined as less than 10,000 m3 (350,000 cu ft) of tephra ejected; and 8 representing a mega-colossal explosive eruption that can eject 1.0×1012 m3 (240 cubic miles) of tephra and have a cloud column height of over 20 km (66,000 ft). The scale is logarithmic, with each interval on the scale representing a tenfold increase in observed ejecta criteria, with the exception of between VEI-0, VEI-1 and VEI-2.

Classification

With indices running from 0 to 8, the VEI associated with an eruption is dependent on how much volcanic material is thrown out, to what height, and how long the eruption lasts. The scale is logarithmic from VEI-2 and up; an increase of 1 index indicates an eruption that is 10 times as powerful. As such, there is a discontinuity in the definition of the VEI between indices 1 and 2. The lower border of the volume of ejecta jumps by a factor of one hundred, from 10,000 to 1,000,000 m3 (350,000 to 35,310,000 cu ft), while the factor is ten between all higher indices. In the following table, the frequency of each VEI indicates the approximate frequency of new eruptions of that VEI or higher.

About 40 eruptions of VEI-8 magnitude within the last 132 million years (Mya) have been identified, of which 30 occurred in the past 36 million years. Considering the estimated frequency is on the order of once in 50,000 years,[3] there are likely many such eruptions in the last 132 Mya that are not yet known. Based on incomplete statistics, other authors assume that at least 60 VEI-8 eruptions have been identified The most recent is Lake Taupō’s Oruanui eruption, more than 27,000 years ago, which means that there have not been any Holocene eruptions with a VEI of 8.

There have been at least 10 eruptions of VEI-7 in the last 11,700 years. There are also 58 Plinian eruptions, and 13 caldera-forming eruptions, of large, but unknown magnitudes. By 2010, the Global Volcanism Program of the Smithsonian Institution had cataloged the assignment of a VEI for 7,742 volcanic eruptions that occurred during the Holocene (the last 11,700 years) which account for about 75% of the total known eruptions during the Holocene. Of these 7,742 eruptions, about 49% have a VEI of 2 or lower, and 90% have a VEI of 3 or lower.

Limitations

Under the VEI, ash, lava, lava bombs, and ignimbrite are all treated alike. Density and vesicularity (gas bubbling) of the volcanic products in question is not taken into account. In contrast, the DRE (dense-rock equivalent) is sometimes calculated to give the actual amount of magma erupted. Another weakness of the VEI is that it does not take into account the power output of an eruption, which makes the VEI extremely difficult to determine with prehistoric or unobserved eruptions.

Although VEI is quite suitable for classifying the explosive magnitude of eruptions, the index is not as significant as sulfur dioxide emissions in quantifying their atmospheric and climatic impact.

Now let’s look at supermassive volcanos from around the world and their VEI ratings.

  • Hunga Ha’apai — Tonga, 2022 VEI 5.7
  • Huaynaputina — Peru, 1600 VEI 6
  • Krakatoa — Indonesia, 1883 VEI 6
  • Santa Maria — Guatemala, 1902 VEI 6
  • Novarupta — Alaska, 1912 VEI 6
  • Pinatuba — Philippines, 1991 VEI 6
  • Ambrym Island, Vanuatu, AD50 VEI 6+
  • Ilopango — El Salvador, AD431 VEI 6+
  • Mount Thera — Greece, BC1610 VEI 7
  • Changbaishan — China AD1000 VEI 7
  • Mount Tambora — Indonesia 1815 VEI 7
  • Yellowstone — USA BC2.1Ma VEI 8

So, the potential of a Level 8 eruption if Yellowstone loses its stuff? What would that look like from a realistic point? The release of energy and matter from a magna pile big enough to fill 11 Grand Canyons, according to the U.S. Geological Survey?

Well, the best source to describe that is the USGS itself. And they did so in an extensive report along with a detailed hazard response plan. Extrapolating from these and other credible sources, the most likely outfall from a VEI 8 explosion is this:

The blast would emit over 4,800 cubic miles (20,000 cubic kilometers) of ash and glass shards. A radius of 700 miles would be covered with three feet of debris. That would include Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, and parts of southwest Canada. Cities like Denver, Spokane, Salt Lake City, Boise, Billings, Cheyenne, and Rapid City would be obliterated. Approximately 10 million people would be dead, with millions more perishing in the wake.

The 100,000-foot-high ash cloud would move primarily eastward with the prevailing winds, eventually reaching the Beltway and as far south as Miami. Commercial air traffic over North America would stop and, shortly, so would most airspace in the world. Road and rail transport in the continental United States would grind to a halt, and the supply chain would be crippled beyond belief. Food and fuel sources would be scarce, and the next round of crops wouldn’t have a chance as meaningful photosynthesis would be blocked by the ash which could take years—perhaps a decade or more—to filter out.

Medical aid would be nearly impossible for the millions and millions exposed to volcanic ash which forms a cement-like coat on the inside of the lungs. The global climate could cool by 12 degrees leaving almost all Americans in an apocalyptic freeze. It’s a scenario almost too horrid to envision.

Yellowstone is certain to erupt again. It’s just a matter of time. When? Folks at the USGS don’t think it’s anywhere in the foreseeable future. It was 800,000 years between the first and second explosions, then another 636,000 years to the third. And it’s been 664,000 years since Yellowstone’s last big sneeze and today, doing the math, that’s an average eruption every 718,000 years. So, we have another 54,000 years yet to go till we’re on target.

Still, 54 millennia don’t keep some from getting excited and their stories from going viral. In early 2014, one of Yellowstone’s seismic monitors called B944 went haywire and began broadcasting erroneous, actually crazy, data on a public viewer. It got picked up by a website called End Times Forecaster that calculated through Biblical algorithms and the Friday Crescent Moon Death Day Cycle that Armageddon would strike on March 28, 2014. Using the Batman Map Strike Zone (don’t ask) they pinpointed the epicenter of destruction right smack dab in the middle of Yellowstone Lake.

Now this may sound like a load of tinfoil crapped on a parent’s-basement-dweller’s head by a diarrhetic seagull, but don’t laugh. On March 30, 2014, a 4.8 magnitude earthquake—its epicenter at Yellowstone Lake—shook the entire park. It was the largest Yellowstone quake in the previous 34 years.

So, setting aside feeds from the Bunker Report and, instead, relying on solid USGS scientific data, I’d say it’s perfectly safe to take the grandkids on a Yellowstone vacation next summer. You won’t have to sacrifice them to appease the angry volcano. Just make sure they don’t pet the fluffy cows.